The Middle East, a region where ancient history and modern conflicts collide, has long been a focal point of global diplomacy. When Donald Trump assumed the U.S. presidency in 2017, and later returned in 2025, his unconventional foreign policy shook the region like a sandstorm. Known for his dealmaker persona and “America First” mantra, Trump’s approach to Middle East peace was anything but traditional. From brokering the Abraham Accords to withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, his policies sparked both applause and outrage. But what was the real impact of Trump’s foreign policy on Middle East peace? Let’s dive into this complex saga, weaving together stories, analysis, and insights to uncover the lasting effects.
A New Playbook for an Old Conflict
Growing up, I remember my grandfather, a history buff, recounting tales of Middle East peace talks—decades of negotiations, from Camp David to Oslo, that seemed to promise much but deliver little. When Trump entered the scene, it felt like someone had flipped the script. His foreign policy wasn’t rooted in the cautious diplomacy of his predecessors. Instead, it was bold, transactional, and often polarizing. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Trump’s approach prioritized strong alliances with Israel and Saudi Arabia while taking a hardline stance against Iran. This shift set the stage for dramatic changes in the region’s dynamics.
Trump’s first term (2017–2021) saw a departure from multilateralism, with decisions like withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and UNESCO signaling a broader retreat from global commitments. In the Middle East, this translated into a focus on bilateral deals and personal relationships with regional leaders. His second term, beginning in 2025, doubled down on this strategy, with advisors like Jared Kushner and appointees such as Marco Rubio shaping a policy that was both pro-Israel and pragmatic. But did these moves bring the region closer to peace, or did they deepen existing divides?
The Abraham Accords: A Game-Changer or a Sidestep?
One of Trump’s most celebrated achievements was the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization agreements signed in 2020 between Israel and several Arab states—United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. I recall watching the White House ceremony, the air thick with optimism as leaders hailed a “new dawn” for the Middle East. For the first time in decades, Arab nations were openly embracing diplomatic and economic ties with Israel without tying it to the Palestinian question.
The accords were a diplomatic coup, but their impact on peace is nuanced:
- Economic and Security Gains: The agreements opened trade routes, aviation links, and security cooperation. For instance, the UAE and Israel signed deals worth billions, fostering innovation in tech and agriculture.
- Regional Alignment Against Iran: By uniting Israel and Gulf states, the accords countered Iran’s influence, a priority for both Trump and his Arab allies.
- Palestinian Exclusion: Critics argue the accords sidelined the Palestinians, who saw them as a betrayal. The Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 had conditioned normalization on a two-state solution, a principle the accords ignored.
While the accords didn’t resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they reshaped the regional order. As Foreign Affairs notes, they prioritized Arab-Israeli relations over Palestinian statehood, challenging decades of diplomatic orthodoxy. Yet, the absence of progress on the Palestinian front left a critical piece of the peace puzzle missing.
The Iran Conundrum: Maximum Pressure, Mixed Results
If the Abraham Accords were Trump’s carrot, his Iran policy was the stick. In 2018, he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. I remember heated debates with friends over this move—some saw it as a bold stand against a rogue regime, others as a reckless escalation. Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign imposed crippling sanctions, aiming to force Iran back to the negotiating table.
The results were mixed:
- Economic Strain: Sanctions devastated Iran’s economy, slashing oil exports and fueling domestic unrest.
- Regional Escalation: Iran responded with proxy attacks via groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, increasing tensions in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
- Nuclear Setback: By 2025, Iran’s nuclear program had advanced, with reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicating enriched uranium stockpiles far exceeding JCPOA limits.
The 2020 drone strike on Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s top military commander, was a high-stakes gamble. While it disrupted Iran’s regional strategy, it also sparked retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq. As Foreign Policy observed, the strike lacked a broader strategy, highlighting the ad-hoc nature of Trump’s policy. In his second term, Trump’s renewed push for a tougher nuclear deal shows promise but risks further instability if negotiations falter.
The Israeli-Palestinian Quagmire: A Plan That Never Took Off
No discussion of Middle East peace is complete without addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Trump’s 2020 “Peace to Prosperity” plan, spearheaded by Jared Kushner, was billed as the “deal of the century.” I recall skimming its 181 pages, struck by its ambitious economic promises—$50 billion in investments for Palestinians—but skeptical of its political feasibility. The plan proposed a Palestinian state with limited sovereignty, granting Israel control over much of the West Bank and Jerusalem.
The plan’s reception was telling:
- Israeli Support: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embraced it, seeing it as a validation of Israel’s territorial claims.
- Palestinian Rejection: The Palestinian Authority dismissed it as a non-starter, refusing to engage in talks. As Al Jazeera reported, Palestinians felt it entrenched Israeli occupation.
- International Skepticism: The UN and EU criticized the plan for undermining a two-state solution.
Trump’s broader pro-Israel moves—recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. embassy, and endorsing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights—cemented his alliance with Netanyahu but alienated Palestinians. Settlement expansion in the West Bank surged, further eroding prospects for a viable Palestinian state. By 2025, Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza and resettle its population in Egypt and Jordan sparked global outrage, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres labeling it “ethnic cleansing.” This bold but controversial vision underscores Trump’s willingness to challenge taboos, but it risks inflaming tensions rather than fostering peace.
Gaza and Beyond: Navigating Ongoing Conflicts
The war in Gaza, ignited by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, was a litmus test for Trump’s second-term ambitions. During his campaign, he urged a swift end to the conflict, saying, “Get it over with and let’s get back to peace.” Yet, as Newsweek reported, Israeli strikes on Gaza and U.S. attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen have complicated his pledge. The conflict, which has killed over 43,000 Palestinians and displaced millions, underscores the region’s volatility.
Trump’s approach has been pragmatic but inconsistent:
- Engagement with Hamas: In a surprising move, his administration held talks with Hamas to secure hostage releases, a departure from U.S. policy labeling the group a terrorist organization.
- Support for Israel: Trump’s unwavering backing of Israel, including military aid, has strained relations with Arab allies wary of civilian casualties.
- Regional Spillover: Conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen highlight the interconnected nature of Middle East crises, challenging Trump’s ability to deliver stability.
The Middle East Institute notes that Trump’s hands-off approach to Syria, contrasted with his active engagement on Iran and Israel, reflects a selective focus that may limit broader peace efforts. For everyday people in the region, from Gazan families to Syrian refugees, the human toll of these policies is a stark reminder of diplomacy’s real-world stakes.
Comparison Table: Trump’s First vs. Second Term Policies
Trump’s Middle East Policies: A Side-by-Side Look
| Aspect | First Term (2017–2021) | Second Term (2025–Present) |
|---|---|---|
| Israeli-Palestinian Policy | Unveiled “Peace to Prosperity” plan, heavily favoring Israel; recognized Jerusalem as capital | Proposed U.S. takeover of Gaza, Palestinian resettlement; continued pro-Israel stance |
| Iran Strategy | Withdrew from JCPOA; imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions; Soleimani strike | Renewed push for nuclear deal; maintained sanctions but open to talks |
| Arab-Israeli Relations | Brokered Abraham Accords with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan | Prioritized Saudi-Israeli normalization; engaged Hamas for hostage talks |
| Regional Conflicts | Limited involvement in Syria; supported Saudi-led coalition in Yemen | Hands-off in Syria; targeted Houthi attacks in Yemen; focused on Gaza ceasefire |
| Key Advisors | Jared Kushner, Rex Tillerson, Mike Pompeo | Jared Kushner, Marco Rubio, Massad Boulos, Steve Witkoff |
| Tone | Transactional, pro-Israel, confrontational toward Iran | Pragmatic, deal-focused, but increasingly provocative (e.g., Gaza proposal) |
This table highlights the evolution of Trump’s approach, balancing continuity with new risks and opportunities.
Voices from the Ground: Perspectives on Trump’s Impact
To understand the human side of Trump’s policies, I reached out to a friend, Leila, a Palestinian-American activist, and Avi, an Israeli journalist I met at a conference. Leila described the despair in her community after the Abraham Accords and the Gaza proposal, feeling that Palestinian aspirations were being erased. “Trump’s deals look shiny on paper,” she said, “but they’re built on our exclusion.” Avi, while critical of Netanyahu’s hardline policies, appreciated the accords’ economic benefits but worried about long-term stability without Palestinian inclusion.
These perspectives echo expert analyses. The Middle East Council on Global Affairs warns that Trump’s prioritization of U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt may stabilize certain regimes but risks alienating marginalized groups. Conversely, supporters like former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed argue that Trump’s disruption of stagnant systems could pave the way for new alliances, as seen in his proactive stance against Iran’s proxies.
The Ripple Effects: Global and Domestic Implications
Trump’s Middle East policies didn’t just reshape the region—they reverberated globally. His tariff-heavy economic nationalism, as noted by the Center for American Progress, strained U.S. alliances, forcing Middle East partners to hedge bets with China and Russia. Cuts to USAID programs in Jordan and elsewhere, intended to prioritize domestic needs, reduced U.S. soft power, leaving a vacuum for competitors to fill.
At home, Trump’s policies polarized Americans. Pro-Israel groups lauded his unwavering support, while progressive activists decried his neglect of Palestinian rights. Campus protests over Gaza, sparked by the 2023 war, grew under his second term as debates over U.S. aid to Israel intensified. This domestic divide mirrors the region’s own fault lines, showing how foreign policy can shape national identity.
FAQ: Unpacking Trump’s Middle East Legacy
Did the Abraham Accords bring lasting peace to the Middle East?
The accords normalized ties between Israel and several Arab states, fostering economic and security cooperation. However, they didn’t address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a core driver of regional unrest, limiting their impact on comprehensive peace.
Why did Trump withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal?
Trump argued the JCPOA was flawed, allowing Iran to pursue nuclear ambitions and fund proxies. His “maximum pressure” strategy aimed to force a tougher deal, but it led to economic hardship in Iran and heightened regional tensions.
How did Trump’s policies affect Palestinians?
His pro-Israel moves, like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and proposing Gaza’s takeover, marginalized Palestinians, who rejected his peace plan as biased. This deepened distrust and stalled progress toward a two-state solution.
What’s the significance of Trump’s Gaza proposal in 2025?
The proposal to resettle Gaza’s population and develop it as a “Riviera” is highly controversial, criticized as ethnic cleansing by the UN. It reflects Trump’s bold but divisive approach, risking further conflict.
How does Trump’s second term differ from his first?
His second term builds on first-term priorities like Israel-Saudi ties and Iran containment but introduces provocative ideas like the Gaza takeover. It’s more pragmatic in engaging groups like Hamas but retains a transactional core.
Looking Ahead: Can Trump Deliver Peace?
As I reflect on Trump’s Middle East legacy, I’m reminded of a Bedouin proverb my grandfather shared: “The desert shifts, but the stars remain.” The region’s conflicts are as old as its sands, yet Trump’s policies have undeniably altered its contours. The Abraham Accords opened new pathways, but the exclusion of Palestinians and the volatile Iran strategy highlight the limits of his approach. His second term, with its bold Gaza proposal and renewed nuclear talks, promises more upheaval—whether for better or worse remains unclear.
For readers eager to engage with this topic, consider these steps:
- Stay Informed: Follow reputable sources like the Council on Foreign Relations or Middle East Institute for balanced analysis.
- Engage in Dialogue: Discuss these issues with diverse perspectives to understand the human stakes.
- Advocate Thoughtfully: Support policies that prioritize inclusive peace, addressing both security and justice.
Trump’s foreign policy is a high-stakes gamble, blending dealmaking with disruption. Whether it brings the Middle East closer to peace or pushes it further from it depends on the delicate balance of power, trust, and vision. As the region navigates this new chapter, one thing is certain: the stars above the desert will keep watching, waiting for the next shift in the sands.